Private sector growth hits 10-month high, but pressure remains
The Nigerian private sector closed the third quarter of 2025 on a strong note, with business activity expanding for the tenth consecutive month, even as the pace of expansion slowed from the previous month.
According to the latest Stanbic IBTC Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the headline PMI posted 53.4 in September, slightly below August’s 54.2, but still firmly above the 50.0 benchmark that signals expansion.
“Growth was supported by a surge in new orders, driven by improved customer demand and the launch of new products. Although the rate of expansion eased to a three-month low, business activity recorded a sharp increase across all four broad sectors. Firms responded by raising output, expanding operating capacity, and boosting purchasing activity,” the report disclosed.
Muyiwa Oni, head of equity research, West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, said Nigeria’s business conditions ended the quarter on a strong note, although the pace of strengthening moderated relative to August. Specifically, the headline PMI settled at 53.4 points in September from 54.2 in August, buoyed by improvement in output and new orders, while inflationary pressures also continued to soften.
“The rate of expansion in output, at 56.1 points compared with 56.8 in August, remained strong despite easing slightly, supported by better material availability and rising customer demand. New orders, at 55.4 points, stayed well above the growth threshold for the 11th consecutive month, though at a slower pace than August’s 58.3 points,” he added.
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The PMI figures align with the broader economy, which grew by 4.23 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2025, compared with 3.13 per cent in Q1, bringing first-half growth to 3.69 per cent. Oni said.
He added that “Agriculture and oil were the strongest drivers, expanding by 2.82 percent and 20.46 percent, respectively, and jointly contributing 35.6 percent of real GDP growth. Non-oil sectors such as ICT, finance and insurance, real estate, and trade also recorded positive gains.”
The PMI report hinted that Stanbic IBTC projects sustained growth into 2026, supported by a likely reduction in interest rates, lower inflation, and reduced exchange rate volatility.
The bank expects oil and non-oil sectors to grow by 14.3 per cent and 4.4 per cent year-on-year, respectively, in Q3 2025, translating into overall GDP growth of 4.5 per cent.
