Youth-led voter surge reshapes outlook for 2027 polls
…Over 4.4 million register in four weeks
Millions of Nigerians are registering to vote at a pace that surpasses the last electoral cycle, according to data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Although this development has been widely applauded, it is prompting cautious optimism about what it could mean for political participation ahead of the 2027 elections.
Over 4.4 million Nigerians have registered in just four weeks of the ongoing nationwide Continuous Voter Registration (CVR), which is nearly one-third of the total new registrations recorded during the entire lead-up to the 2023 elections.
Out of that number, young people between the ages of 18 and 34 account for about 2.92 million, while students represent a quarter at 1.11 million.
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Political experts say if the registration momentum is sustained, the country could deliver the largest voter roll in a single cycle.
Chinedu Obi, a political analyst and director-general of the Inter-Party Advisory Council, believes the surge could be driven by unfavorable conditions due to difficult government policies and the desire for change.
“I believe that anyone who has been in this country in the last two years with the difficulty we’ve faced would quickly want to get registered to effectively participate in deciding who governs the country, knowing that the action or inaction of any elected government can translate into our prosperity or otherwise,” he said.
Obi said Nigeria could register well over 30 million more new voters. urging the government and all relevant stakeholders to invest in voter education.
“I think there’s a need for us to do more voter education, to encourage people to know the need to participate in the election.”
For Innocent Okechukwu, a political observer, the numbers shows a strong early signals of a potentially highly competitive electoral environment. According to him, the surge could point to young and energised electorate, preparing to push harder for change than in 2023. He said it also raises the stakes for INEC to deliver credible polls.
“Youth-driven movements, like what was seen in the #EndSARS era or the ‘Obidient’ wave in 2023, could re-emerge with greater scale and organisation. For the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which faces mounting criticism over economic hardship, the surge poses both opportunities and risks,” he said.
Armsfree Ajanaku, executive director of the Grassroots Centre for Rights & Civic Orientation, described the trend as a good development.
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“The millions that have turned out is an indication that the Nigerian people still believe that democracy is the preferred vehicle for the realisation of their national aspirations,” he said.
The youth-led surge brings back memories of the 2023 elections, when young people rallied around the Obidient Movement led by Peter Obi. That wave was driven by anger over poor governance, corruption, and insecurity, especially among urban youth. Even though Obi did not win, his campaign changed the political conversation and showed that Nigeria’s youth could shape national outcomes.
Before that, the #EndSARS protests of 2020, led by young Nigerians against police brutality, had already revealed the power of youth mobilisation. Although the protests were crushed, they created a generation of politically-aware citizens who now seem determined to turn activism into votes.
Regional disparities
INEC data show that regional disparities are emerging in the early phase of the exercise. The South-West is leading in new registrations, while the South-East trails far behind.
Osun State recorded the highest number nationwide with 552,045 registrations, followed by Lagos with 488,523. The least are Ebonyi, Abia, and Enugu, with 4,024, 3,532, and 1,839 registrations, respectively.
According to Okechukwu, the South-East figures raise questions about voter confidence, security concerns, or disillusionment with electoral institutions following the 2023 experience. He cautioned that the low numbers could further marginalise the region politically unless parties and civil groups step up mobilisation.
He added that the early lead in the South-West could consolidate its influence in determining the 2027 outcome.
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For Obi, the low figure in the southeast could be a loss of faith in the system. “In the last election, many Nigerians believed that the outcome of that election wasn’t exactly consistent with their expectations, particularly in the presidential election, where many felt that the person they voted for didn’t win. You know that the South-East voted massively for a particular candidate in that election. Maybe there could be an apathy for registration, which is a function of those who feel that their votes don’t count,” he said.
On the figures in the South-West, Ajanaku said local political projections have been driving registration turnout.
“In Osun State, for instance, there will be an off-cycle governorship poll in 2026. So, it is clear local political actors are driving the registration process, which is a good thing.
“Other regions lagging behind should also mobilise the people to go register. In all, political actors should engage the process and stop all forms of disinformation targeted at undermining the electoral process,” he urged.
