Nigeria’s working-age population to surge to 168 million by 2030 – NESG

…Calls for a unified national agenda to create 27m jobs in 5yrs

Nigeria must urgently pursue deep structural reforms to avoid an employment crisis by the end of the decade as its working-age population is projected to surge to 168 million by 2030, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has said.

The Group highlighted this on Monday during the launch of its landmark report at the ongoing 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (NES#31) in Abuja.

The report, titled From Hustle to Decent Work: Unlocking Jobs and Productivity for Economic Transformation in Nigeria, emphasizes the urgent need for a national agenda to create 27 million formal jobs by 2030 — an average of 4.5 million jobs per year — to prevent rising unemployment as Nigeria’s population rapidly grows.

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The NESG report paints a stark picture of Nigeria’s labour market, with over 90 percent of workers engaged in informal employment, and more than 80 percent are concentrated in low-productivity sectors.

Without significant reforms, the group warns, the country could face a doubling of unemployment and underemployment rates over the next five years, trapping millions in vulnerable, low-wage work.

“This is not just a labour market issue; it is a huge development challenge,” Wilson Erumebor, Senior Economist at the NESG, said during his presentation of the report.

“Without decisive reforms to create decent and productive jobs, an entire generation risks being trapped in vulnerable work that neither lifts families out of poverty nor moves the nation forward.”

The report identifies five key challenges stifling productivity and job creation: a shallow private sector base, widespread skills mismatch, poor educational outcomes, growth concentrated in sectors that do not generate large-scale employment, and critical infrastructure gaps, particularly in power and logistics.

To address these constraints, the NESG has proposed the Nigeria Works Framework – a six-pillar strategy focused on improving productivity across the economy.

The framework includes investing in skills for productivity, driving sectoral engines of growth such as manufacturing and ICT, supporting enterprise-led growth, formalising the informal economy, strengthening institutions and data systems, and adopting productivity as a core national metric.

“The challenge before us is to move decisively into the consolidation phase, embedding reforms in ways that drive jobs, growth, and inclusion, while simultaneously laying the foundations for long-term transformation that secures prosperity for every Nigerian,” Niyi Yusuf, Chairman, NESG said.

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The report singles out four sectors — manufacturing, construction, ICT, and professional services — as holding the highest potential for large-scale job creation and productivity growth.

The NESG argues that targeted investments and policy alignment in these areas can unlock significant employment opportunities, especially for Nigeria’s growing youth population.