Nigeria’s trade strengthens in H1 2025 from economic recovery
The bullish economic reforms are yielding results suitable for economic growth over the long term, even though the immediate impact does not appear to be very visible. The federal government of Nigeria has recently penned down strategic fiscal and economic reforms, of which some have been implemented immediately, while others will be implemented in 2026. Nigeria recorded a total foreign trade position of ₦74.062 trillion, which consists of ₦43.349 trillion (41.47%) in exports and ₦30.713 trillion (58.53%) in imports, yielding a trade balance of ₦12.636 trillion (17.06%) between January 2025 and June 2025.
The quarter-on-quarter results are very remarkable, as there is more alignment of Nigerian players to export more goods than import during the period under review. The total trade improved slightly by 5.59%, increasing from ₦36.025 trillion to ₦38.038 trillion. Meanwhile, the trade surplus surged by 44.31% quarter-on-quarter, rising from ₦5.172 trillion in Q1-2025 to ₦7.464 trillion in Q2-2025, as imports decreased by 0.90% from ₦15.426 trillion to ₦15.287 trillion and exports rose significantly by 10.45% from ₦20.598 trillion to ₦22.751 trillion. A further review revealed that some shortfalls from the trade that should have been recorded in March 2025 were accounted for and recorded in April 2025, resulting in March 2025 having the lowest total trade position of ₦11.590 trillion, April 2025 having the second-highest total trade position of ₦12.718 trillion and May 2025 having the highest total trade position of ₦13.695 trillion. The total volume of trade between H1 2024 and H1 2025 is relatively stable, reflecting a slight decline of 1.94% in dollar terms. Despite the nominal naira value of the total trade increasing by 12.88% from ₦65.609 trillion in H1 2024 to ₦74.062 trillion in H1 2025, the average naira-to-dollar exchange rate depreciated by 15.12% from ₦/$ 1346.30 to ₦/$ 1549.83 over the same period.
The year-over-year export trade increased by 17.51%, rising from ₦38.891 trillion in H1-2024 to ₦43.349 trillion in H1-2025, primarily due to the declining value of the ₦/$ exchange rate; however, the dollar value of these exports only increased by 2.08%, from $27.401 billion to $28.000 billion. On a year-over-year comparison, the imports appear to have increased by 6.94% from ₦28.719 trillion in H1-2024 to ₦30.713 trillion in H1-2025, while the dollar equivalent declined by 7.10% from $21.332 billion to $19.817 billion in H1-2025.
Read also: Nigeria’s trade rebounds as currency stabilises
Of the total export trade in H1-2025, the value of crude oil exported is ₦24.921 trillion, 57.49% of total exports, with April 2025 having the lowest share of crude oil exports to total exports at 48.97% and April 2025 also having the highest share of non-oil exports to total exports at 17.02%. In a q-o-q comparison, Q2-2025 delivered the highest share of non-oil exports at 15.38%, behind Q2-2020 at 15.86% between 2020 and 2025. The value of non-oil exports in Q2-2020 was relatively high because oil prices fell to a low futures price of $37.63 per barrel, which was caused by logistics issues stemming from the Covid crisis. In H1-2025, agricultural-related exports contributed the most after crude oil and other oil-related products.
Agricultural-related exports worth ₦2.961 trillion account for 6.83% of the total value of goods exported in H1-2025. The most traded commodities for this period are standard-quality cocoa beans, superior-quality cocoa beans, and cashew nuts. There are concerns, as the only processed product among the leading agricultural exports in H1-2025 is natural cocoa butter, with a total value of ₦184.115 billion, a tiny fraction of 6.22% of the total agricultural exports and approximately 5% of the total cocoa exported as raw material to the other markets. Behind agriculture, the raw material value of ₦1.864 trillion, a 4.30% share of total exports, was also a significant non-oil export. Urea, non-monetary gold (including gold plated with platinum), technically specified natural rubber, other preparations of cocoa powder in blocks, and leather further prepared after tanning contributed significantly in Q2-2025. The solid minerals sector recorded the lowest share of export goods in H1-2025 with a value of ₦136.173 billion, 0.31% of total goods exported.
The trade surplus of ₦12.636 trillion ($8.153 billion) in H1-2025 was mainly due to stable conditions, good expectations for foreign exchange rates, and stronger external reserves, making it the highest in Africa for that period, even though the average price of crude oil, Nigeria’s main trade income source, went down. The average market price for the monthly position in H1-2025 is $73.46/barrel, below the $75.00/barrel presented in the 2025 Appropriation Act, the 2025–2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and the Fiscal Strategy Paper for the Federal Republic of Nigeria. There are opportunities for an increase in the trade surplus balance as the economic recovery path for Nigeria is sustained over the short to medium term.
Oluwatosin Oladetan is a public policy expert, board advisor, vice president, independent director, business strategist, corporate strategist, and advisor on business transformation and project management. As a prognosticator, he has developed appropriate competencies for deploying critical thinking, analytical skills, financial modelling, leadership, project management, team management, management consulting, emotional intelligence, design thinking, strategic planning, corporate planning, change management, idea incubation, refinement, development, and transformation.
