Nigeria earns IMF praise for revenue drive, FX transparency
…Raises growth projection to 3.9% in 2025
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commended Nigeria for making notable progress in revenue collection and for improving transparency in its foreign exchange (FX) and reserves management.
The Fund made these remarks during a press briefing on the Global Financial Stability Report, held as part of the ongoing World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C on Tuesday.
Those who addressed journalists at the session included: Tobias Adrian, financial counsellor and director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM); Vamvakidis Athanasios, deputy director of the department; and Jason Wu, assistant director. The briefing was moderated by Meera Louis, communications officer at the IMF.
During the discussion, the IMF officials highlighted that movements in exchange rates play a critical role as a natural buffer that helps economies adjust to external shocks. They explained that a depreciating exchange rate is not inherently negative and can, in fact, be beneficial in restoring balance and competitiveness within the domestic economy.
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The IMF further observed that Nigeria has implemented important policy steps aimed at strengthening its macroeconomic framework, particularly in the area of monetary policy. It reiterated its support for Nigeria’s transition toward a more flexible exchange rate regime, describing it as a vital reform that aligns with the broader goal of enhancing the country’s economic resilience.
According to the IMF officials, Nigeria has not only improved its capacity for revenue collection but has also made significant progress in increasing transparency around its foreign exchange operations and reserve positions. These actions, combined with tighter monetary policy measures by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), have helped to reduce inflation from above 30 percent last year to around 23 percent this year while also bolstering the nation’s external reserves.
“The direction of travel appears to be positive,” one IMF official noted, expressing cautious optimism about Nigeria’s economic trajectory.
Despite the progress recorded, the IMF warned that Sub-Saharan Africa as a region continues to face notable headwinds. It pointed out that although growth across the region has remained relatively robust amid ease of global financial conditions and the resumption of capital inflows, the cycle of heavy inflows followed by abrupt withdrawals remains a risk. A sudden reversal, the Fund cautioned, could expose underlying vulnerabilities, particularly in economies that are heavily dependent on foreign investments.
The IMF therefore emphasised the need for countries across the region, including Nigeria, to continue consolidating recent gains by maintaining sound fiscal and monetary policies, improving debt management, and accelerating structural reforms, especially those that boost domestic revenue mobilisation.
Nigeria’s growth forecast
The IMF further raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.9 percent, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point from its earlier projection.
The announcement came during the launch of the Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook in Washington DC.
The IMF also revised Nigeria’s 2026 growth projection upward by 0.9 percentage point to 4.2 percent, citing improved macroeconomic conditions, better investor confidence, and stronger oil output.
According to the Fund, the enhanced outlook reflects reduced uncertainty in the domestic environment and limited exposure to the recent United States tariffs, which have had little direct impact on Nigeria’s economy due to its relatively low trade linkages with the U.S.
The IMF explained that since July, Nigeria’s exchange rate has appreciated, financial conditions have strengthened, and investor sentiment has improved. The Fund added that Nigeria’s fiscal stance remains supportive, while the hydrocarbon sector has benefited from higher oil production and improved security around key installations. “These factors together underpin the stronger growth outlook for Nigeria,” the IMF said.
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In addition to the 2025 and 2026 revisions, the Fund also adjusted its 2024 growth estimate for Nigeria to 4.1 percent, up by 0.7 percentage point from the previous forecast. It attributed this to the recent rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which now provides a more comprehensive picture of the economy by capturing a wider range of economic activities, including contributions from the informal sector that were previously unrecorded.
Addressing the regional outlook, the IMF said Sub-Saharan Africa continues to show resilience supported by macroeconomic stabilisation efforts and reform momentum in key economies such as Nigeria and Ethiopia. It, however, warned that resource-dependent and conflict-affected countries still face significant headwinds. The Fund noted that low-income economies are struggling with widening per capita income gaps compared to advanced economies, and it urged countries to strengthen institutions, double down on reforms, improve revenue mobilization through tax reforms, and enhance debt management and transparency to unlock growth potential.
