Power, sovereignty, and the Sahel (Part 2): Nigeria’s balancing act
When Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso withdrew from ECOWAS and formalised their cooperation under the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), the political landscape of West Africa entered uncharted terrain. What began two years ago as a revolt against sanctions and external dictates has matured into a deliberate reordering of the regional map — one that forces Nigeria, long the anchor of West African diplomacy, to confront the limits of its influence and the necessity of recalibrating its leadership.
The evolution of AES from protest to project has been swift. What initially appeared as a reactive coalition of juntas has developed into an embryonic political and security framework. The establishment of a joint military force, a shared defence charter pledging mutual protection, and exploratory discussions about economic and judicial coordination signal a bloc seeking durability rather than transience. The message is unmistakable: the Sahel intends to govern itself on its own terms, no longer as a periphery to ECOWAS or as a theatre of Western strategy.
“What Nigeria must avoid most of all is complacency. The AES has already survived early predictions of collapse and is beginning to institutionalise its identity.”
This posture is more than symbolic. It represents an assertion of political agency by states that have long felt marginalised within the structures of African regionalism. The leaders of AES are not merely repudiating the authority of ECOWAS; they are redefining legitimacy itself. For them, the credibility of a government rests not on adherence to electoral timelines or international recognition, but on the ability to secure borders, reclaim resources, and resist dependency. Their slogan — sovereignty over democracy — captures a sentiment that resonates widely across a region fatigued by insecurity, corruption, and external tutelage.
This ideological inversion strikes at the heart of Nigeria’s regional philosophy. Since the 1970s, Abuja’s foreign policy has been built on two intertwined principles: the defence of democratic order and the pursuit of regional integration through ECOWAS. Both now stand contested. The AES challenges Nigeria’s moral authority by positioning itself as the voice of disillusioned societies that have lost faith in the democratic process. At the same time, the fragmentation of ECOWAS weakens Nigeria’s most potent instrument of regional influence. In short, Nigeria faces a crisis not only of security but also of relevance.
The immediate danger is practical. The withdrawal of AES from ECOWAS security frameworks, including the Multinational Joint Task Force around Lake Chad, threatens to unravel years of coordination against transnational insurgent networks. The jihadist belt that stretches from central Mali through Burkina Faso and Niger intersects directly with Nigeria’s northwest and northeast. Intelligence sharing, joint patrols, and cross-border operations are already being disrupted by political distrust. Without careful management, ideological divergence could translate into operational failure — allowing militants to exploit the gaps between divided states.
Yet the deeper challenge is conceptual. The AES’s critique of governance in the region has struck a chord far beyond its borders. Across Africa, the idea that democracy has become formed without substance — a ritual devoid of results — is gaining traction. Military rulers in the Sahel now claim to speak on behalf of ordinary citizens, casting themselves as patriots restoring dignity and order. Whether or not one accepts their claim, the appeal is undeniable. Nigeria’s task, therefore, is not to dismiss this narrative but to confront the grievances that fuel it.
Read also: Power, sovereignty, and the Sahel (Part 1): The emerging new geometry
To do so, Nigeria must first look inward. Its own democratic credibility is the foundation of its external legitimacy. If Nigerians experience insecurity, joblessness, and corruption under elected governments, Abuja’s moral leverage over its neighbours will continue to erode. The most effective response to the AES is not rhetorical condemnation but demonstrable performance. Nigeria must make democracy work — visibly and measurably — by providing security, infrastructure, and opportunity. Only then will its advocacy of democratic governance carry persuasive weight across West Africa.
This internal renewal must be matched by external strategy. Nigeria’s response to the AES requires a recalibrated blend of pragmatism, restraint, and initiative. Sanctions and isolation have proved ineffective in reversing the Sahelian drift; they have merely entrenched defiance. What is required now is selective engagement — a willingness to sustain cooperation on essential fronts even amid political estrangement. Security coordination, humanitarian aid, and border management are too vital to be held hostage to ideological differences. Quiet diplomacy and functional partnerships must replace the rhetoric of punishment.
Economic diplomacy offers another, perhaps more sustainable, avenue for influence. West African integration will not be salvaged by declarations; it will be sustained by mutual prosperity. Nigeria’s size gives it a natural advantage — one that must be leveraged through investment in connective infrastructure linking its markets to those of the Sahel. Rail lines, energy grids, and trade corridors can turn economic interdependence into a stabilising force. A farmer in Tillabéri or a trader in Maradi whose livelihood depends on Nigerian goods and transport routes will be less inclined to view Nigeria as an adversary. Commerce can succeed where politics falters.
This economic outreach should be complemented by an intellectual one. The AES narrative has drawn strength from the perception that Africa’s institutions are shaped elsewhere and imposed from above. Nigeria, with its historical experience of balancing nationalism and multilateralism, is uniquely positioned to propose a new discourse — one that reclaims democracy as an African project, rooted in accountability and development rather than imported procedure. Such a reframing would allow Nigeria to compete on ideological terrain without abandoning its principles.
At the same time, Nigeria must navigate a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment. The Sahel has become an arena for renewed great-power rivalry. France’s retreat has created a vacuum that Russia and, to a lesser extent, China are eager to fill. Moscow’s involvement, through security contractors and disinformation campaigns, has provided the AES with short-term leverage but at the cost of deepening its dependency on external patrons. Western capitals, meanwhile, increasingly look to Nigeria as the last democratic bulwark in a region tilting toward authoritarian nationalism. This dual expectation — from East and West — presents Nigeria with both opportunity and risk.
Abuja must resist being drawn into binary alignments. Its foreign policy should be guided by interest, not allegiance. Engagement with Moscow and Beijing should be pursued where it advances security or development, but without compromising Nigeria’s autonomy. Partnerships with Western powers must also be recalibrated to ensure mutual respect rather than dependence. In a multipolar world, Nigeria’s strength lies in its ability to maintain equilibrium — to act as a bridge rather than a satellite.
Read also: Reintegration of Sahel states vital for regional development – ECOWAS Parliament
What Nigeria must avoid most of all is complacency. The AES has already survived early predictions of collapse and is beginning to institutionalise its identity. Whether it consolidates further or eventually fractures, its existence has redefined the boundaries of regional politics. The notion that ECOWAS speaks for West Africa can no longer be taken for granted. Nigeria must therefore prepare for a long-term coexistence with the AES — one that demands both vigilance and adaptability.
This coexistence does not have to be antagonistic. Even as political models diverge, pragmatic cooperation on shared interests remains possible. Border management, counterterrorism, climate adaptation, and trade connectivity are areas where engagement can continue quietly, insulated from ideological posturing. Nigeria should lead in institutionalising such low-visibility collaboration, recognising that stability in the Sahel ultimately underpins stability at home.
The broader contest unfolding between ECOWAS and the AES is, in truth, less about blocs than about ideas. It is a struggle between procedural democracy and performance-based sovereignty, between legitimacy derived from consent and legitimacy derived from control. For now, the two models coexist uneasily. The durability of either will depend not on rhetoric, but on results. If Nigeria can show that democratic systems deliver more effectively than autocratic improvisations, it will reclaim the moral and strategic initiative. If not, the gravitational pull of the AES narrative will only strengthen.
In this emerging order, Nigeria’s leadership must rest not on nostalgia for past pre-eminence but on a forward-looking demonstration of capacity. Power in West Africa will increasingly belong to those who can secure their people and stabilise their economies — regardless of ideological label. If Nigeria wishes to lead, it must embody both.
The Alliance of Sahel States has forced the region to confront uncomfortable truths about governance, sovereignty, and external influence. Whether one sees it as rebellion or renewal, it has already altered the conversation. Nigeria’s task is to shape what comes next — to prove that democracy, grounded in delivery and dignity, remains Africa’s most credible path to sovereignty. In the Sahel’s defiance lies both a warning and an invitation. How Nigeria responds will determine not just the fate of ECOWAS but the future balance of power across West Africa.
Dr Hani Okoroafor is a global informatics expert advising corporate boards across Europe, Africa, North America, and the Middle East. He serves on the Editorial Advisory Board of BusinessDay. Reactions are welcome at [email protected].
