Can Rivers run an independent government after Fubara’s reinstatement?
Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State is back in office after the six months’ emergency rule declared by President Bola Tinubu in the state elapsed.
The emergency rule followed a prolonged political crisis caused by the rift between Governor Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, who is the minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Mr Fubara resumed duties on 19 September, a day after the six-month emergency period elapsed and two days after President Tinubu declared its end.
Truce or capture?
Reports suggested that Mr Fubara accepted “difficult agreements” to be reinstated as governor during a fresh truce brokered by President Tinubu.
One of such “difficult decisions,” according to a report by TheCable, was that Mr Fubara would be reinstated to complete his four-year tenure, but must forgo any plans to seek a second term in 2027. The condition, observers say, would limit Mr Fubara’s clout, but he agreed to it.
As part of the conditions, according to the report, Mr Wike would be allowed to nominate all the local government chairpersons of the state’s 23 LGAs.
Mr Fubara also reportedly agreed to pay all outstanding allowances and entitlements owed to the 27 lawmakers loyal to Mr Wike who were suspended from the state assembly. In return, the lawmakers would not initiate any impeachment proceedings against him.
Some political analysts say that while the truce was imperative, Mr Fubara’s giving up significant powers in exchange for political survival was the key cost.
“Wike is the real winner here. By controlling the local government chairmen, he retains significant influence over the state’s political machinery, which will be crucial for 2027,” a source had told the newspaper.
Although Mr Wike and his camps repeatedly refused to admit that those were conditions for Mr Fubara’s reinstatement, subsequent events suggested that the rumoured conditions were likely real.
Before Mr Fubara’s return, Ibok Ibas, then-sole administrator of Rivers, scheduled local government elections in the South-south state.
But Mr Fubara’s camp boycotted the election, which was criticised by many Nigerians who had argued that an election conducted by a sole administrator was unconstitutional.
Despite lawsuits filed by various groups and individuals from Rivers against it, the elections were held, with the APC winning most of the seats.
Mr Wike had argued that Mr Fubara failed to participate in the election because of an outside engagement. Still, observers say the governor’s absence during the local polls signalled a protest against the “lopsided” peace deal.
In an interview with PREMIUM TIMES, Joe Korka-Waadah, a political management consultant, described the August local elections in Rivers State as “illegal and unconstitutional.”
How it all started
Mr Wike was instrumental in Mr Fubara’s emergence as governor, providing the political platform, resources, and influence needed for his victory.
However, both politicians fell apart less than six months after Mr Fubara assumed office as governor in 2023.
They had been locked in a protracted fight over the control of the political structures in Rivers State. The political crisis initially split the state’s legislature into two factions, with 27 lawmakers loyal to Mr Wike and three to Mr Fubara.
The 2024 budget of Rivers State became a major key factor in escalating the crisis between the two parties after the governor presented an N800 billion budget to the faction of the Rivers assembly loyal to him, ignoring the larger group of 27 lawmakers loyal to Mr Wike.
The governor had recognised the three-member faction because he believed the others “lost” their seats in the assembly since they had “defected” from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
However, a 28 February 2025 Supreme Court judgement tipped the balance of power in favour of Mr Wike and his allies.
The court reinstated the pro-Wike faction as the legitimate Rivers assembly, stopped federal allocations to the state, and nullified the local elections earlier conducted by Mr Fubara’s administration.
On 14 March, the Rivers House of Assembly served a notice of alleged misconduct against Mr Fubara and his deputy, Ngozi Odu, as a preliminary step for their impeachment.
In a notice addressed to the Speaker, Martin Amaewhule, the 26 lawmakers, among other things, accused Mr Fubara of spending Rivers’ funds without approval from the state assembly and appointing people to run the government without the required screening and confirmation.
President Tinubu, on 18 March, declared a state of emergency in Rivers and suspended Mr Fubara, his deputy, and the state lawmakers for six months before appointing Mr Ibas as the sole administrator.
While the governor was on suspension, Mr Tinubu hosted the second reconciliation meeting between Messrs Fubara and Wike in June.
A previous peace deal between the parties brokered by Mr Tinubu in 2023 had collapsed.
After the June meeting with the president, Mr Fubara said no sacrifice or concession was too much for the peace and stability of the state.
Battered self-esteem
In April, Mr Fubara visited Mr Wike at his Abuja residence to beg for reconciliation.
The governor’s reported act of begging Mr Wike, analysts say, was a massive blow to his self-esteem and public image, with deep-seated implications as he returned.
“The chief executive of a state, begging a minister who serves under the Nigerian government, carries a different and more loaded meaning. It is not just about the reconciliatory move; it is seen as an act of continued political slavery,” one analyst, who asked not to be named, told PREMIUM TIMES.
The analyst added that Mr Fubara’s action not only reinforced the story of his political weakness but also led to a loss of respect and moral authority among a section of the public who had supported the fight for his return.
Anything left for Governor Fubara?
Like their supporters, Messrs Wike and Fubara separately announced the return of peace in Rivers State after the emergency rule. But analysts say Mr Wike had succeeded in gaining control of the political structure in the South-south state.
Cynthia Kenneth, a political analyst in Rivers, told PREMIUM TIMES that Mr Wike’s strategy to sustain his political dominance in the state was to retake control of the political structure from Mr Fubara.
Ms Kenneth said that in the legislature, Mr Fubara would find it nearly impossible to pass any laws or policies not approved by Mr Wike and his allies, which helps the FCT minister put the governor in check.
The analyst further argued that the assembly members loyal to Mr Wike could refuse to pass the governor’s proposed budget, or even alter it to starve his administration of funds for projects he intends to implement.
“Again, any new appointments Mr Fubara wishes to make—from commissioners to heads of parastatals—must be screened and approved by the House. The faction of Mr Wike can use this as a tool to delay or reject his nominees, further crippling his ability to form a functional government,” she said.
Any chance in 2027?
While both politicians are officially members of the PDP, Mr Wike serves as minister under the APC-led federal government.
Ms Kenneth, the political analyst, contended that the fact that Mr Wike is a key player in both the PDP and the APC in the state is a significant challenge for Mr Fubara’s aspirations for a second term in 2027, especially in light of the alleged agreement that Mr Fubara would not seek re-election.
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She said Mr Wike’s loyalists in the PDP and APC leadership in Rivers State could frustrate Mr Fubara’s expected bid for re-election in 2027.
“The FCT minister’s ability to finance and mobilise support within the PDP gives him the power to sideline Mr Fubara and any of his loyalists, making it extremely difficult for the governor to build a support base from within his own party,” Ms Kenneth argued.
She said that by being a major player in the APC, the minister could influence the selection of the party’s candidate for the 2027 governorship election in Rivers.
“This allows him (Wike) to choose a candidate he can either control or who is strong enough to pose a significant threat to the governor, regardless of which party Mr Fubara runs on,” she said.
However, John Kalu, a former commissioner for trade and investment in Abia State, believes that Mr Wike did not take complete control of the state’s political structure.
“For me, everything has been settled. Wike and Fubara are back together like they were in 2023,” Mr Kalu, also a PDP chieftain and political analyst, told PREMIUM TIMES.
The former commissioner stressed that Mr Fubara’s chances of seeking re-election in 2027 were high, arguing that the governor could stand the chance of winning reelection if he performed well.
Mike Ihemadu, a political science lecturer at Imo State University, Owerri, corroborated Mr Kalu’s argument, explaining that the truce had restored the relationship between Messrs Fubara and Wike.
Mr Ihemadu said he expects the governor to assume full control of the state’s political structure and be allowed to govern the state without any further hindrance.
Mr Fubara may have been reinstated as Rivers State governor, but he faces the task of consistently seeking to be in his predecessor’s “good books” and delivering good governance. His failure to keep to either of the obligations may have dire consequences.