China dominates Nigeria’s solar market, accounts for 70% of panel shipments

China has tightened its grip on Nigeria’s fast-growing solar market, accounting for more than 70 percent of all panel shipments into Africa’s biggest economy in the first half of 2025.

The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Nigeria imported solar panels worth N242.68 billion ($163 million) between January and June, with N173.15 billion of that total, or 71.38 percent coming directly from China.

The surge underscores China’s continued dominance in global solar manufacturing and Nigeria’s accelerating shift toward renewable energy amid deepening instability in the national grid. Imports from China dwarfed those from other suppliers such as the United Arab Emirates (N28.69 billion) and India (N16.82 billion), cementing Beijing’s role as the backbone of Nigeria’s distributed energy transition.

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Solar imports into Nigeria climbed 17.29 percent year-on-year from N206.82 billion recorded in the same period of 2024. The NBS said solar panels represented about 2.2 percent of the country’s total merchandise imports of N10.99 trillion during the first half of 2025, a remarkable share given the foreign exchange pressures and high import tariffs that continue to constrain most sectors.

“The spike in imports shows that Nigerians are increasingly taking power generation into their own hands,” said a Lagos-based energy economist, who asked not to be named. “Persistent blackouts, diesel costs, and erratic grid supply are accelerating private solar adoption faster than government-led electrification programs.”

The growth in solar panel imports contrasts sharply with a slump in formal capital investment in the broader electricity sector. NBS figures show that capital importation into electricity fell 60.2 percent year-on-year to $22.17 million in the first half of 2025, down from $55.67 million a year earlier.

Analysts say the divergence suggests that Nigeria’s solar expansion is being financed more by households, small businesses, and corporate buyers than by large-scale institutional investors. Rooftop installations, mini-grids, and commercial hybrid systems are proliferating across urban and rural Nigeria as citizens seek to cut reliance on the fragile national grid.

The Nigerian solar market, valued at over $600 million in 2024, is projected to grow 15%–20% annually through 2030, according to industry estimates. Demand is being driven by both necessity and falling technology costs, even as the naira’s weakness against the dollar and import bottlenecks inflate short-term prices.

Nigeria’s electricity supply remains chronically unreliable. While the country has an installed generation capacity of about 13,000 megawatts (MW), available output rarely exceeds 4,000 MW. Frequent load shedding and widespread blackouts have forced businesses and households to rely on costly, polluting diesel generators.

At a diesel price averaging N988 per liter in October 2025, powering even a medium-sized business has become financially unsustainable. That has made solar power, despite its upfront costs, an increasingly attractive long-term alternative.

“Every day without grid power is a day solar becomes more viable,” said a Lagos-based solar developer. “Chinese modules dominate the market because of their competitive pricing, availability, and strong distribution networks.”

The growing import bill is also prompting debate within government circles about how to reduce dependency on foreign panels. Officials are weighing incentives to attract investment into domestic solar manufacturing, including potential import restrictions and tax holidays under the Pioneer Status Incentive scheme.

Nigeria’s Free Trade Zones are being positioned as potential hubs for renewable manufacturing, with authorities projecting that local production could create thousands of jobs while lowering system costs.

However, industry players caution that achieving full-scale local manufacturing will require more than policy intent. “Solar production is capital-intensive and supply-chain dependent,” said the CEO of a renewable energy firm. “Without stable power, access to finance, and a reliable raw materials base, local assembly may remain the most realistic near-term step.”

Nigeria’s solar momentum is also influencing regional markets. Neighbouring countries, including Niger and Ghana, have launched new off-grid programs inspired by Nigeria’s consumer-driven model. Developers say West Africa could emerge as one of the world’s most dynamic distributed solar markets if governments provide consistent policy and financing support.

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Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers are deepening their presence across Africa, using Nigeria as a gateway to expand market share. Beijing’s cost advantage, established supply chains, and financing support through its export credit agencies give Chinese firms a strong competitive edge.

Despite the short-term challenges of currency volatility and import dependence, analysts say the surge in solar imports marks a critical pivot in Nigeria’s energy story, from centralised, oil-dependent power generation to decentralised, renewable energy resilience.

The momentum, if sustained, could help Nigeria cut diesel consumption, lower emissions, and accelerate progress toward its net-zero commitments. As the government pursues its goal of achieving energy access for all Nigerians by 2030, solar power, led by imports from China, is fast becoming the foundation of that transition.

“Nigeria’s solar boom is no longer policy-driven, it’s people-driven,” said an industry analyst. “And right now, China is powering that revolution.”