How Anambra security conundrum may shape Saturday’s governorship election
As Anambra prepares for its governorship election on Saturday, the state finds itself once again in a precarious balance between fear and faith in democracy.
In a state once celebrated for its commercial vibrancy and political awareness, fear has become a silent but decisive force shaping not just political conversations, but the very act of participation itself.
The upcoming election is, therefore, not merely a contest among candidates, but a test of courage for citizens and of credibility for Nigeria’s democratic institutions.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has assured voters of its readiness, political parties are concluding their campaigns, and security agencies have rolled out deployment plans. Yet, beneath the surface of these official assurances lies a gnawing anxiety, one that has come to define elections in Nigeria’s South-east.
Anambra State, once peaceful, gradually began to flood with stories of “unknown gunmen,” and even if election day passes peacefully, the lingering perception of danger could suppress turnout before the first ballot is cast.
For many residents, especially those in rural areas, Election Day has increasingly become a test of courage rather than a civic duty. Whether voters will come out in large numbers or stay behind closed doors may depend less on political enthusiasm and more on their confidence in navigating the process successfully.
The poll is unfolding under the weight of lingering insecurity, years of separatist agitation, and deep-seated public mistrust in both government and law enforcement. Although the state has made modest progress since the violence that scarred the 2021 election, the atmosphere remains tense.
Security realities in Anambra
IPOB sit-at-home culture and separatist agitations
The ghost of the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) continues to haunt Anambra’s electoral landscape. Though the group has been outlawed and its leaders have disowned the Monday lockdowns, splinter elements still enforce sit-at-home orders in parts of the South-east.
The result is a persistent anxiety about safety, particularly during national events such as elections. For many residents, the fear is not merely about violence but about the unpredictability that surrounds these lockdowns.
A voter who must travel to another ward to cast a ballot may decide the risk is not worth it. In a region where IPOB propaganda often frames Nigerian elections as a “state affair,” this cultural residue can quietly suppress turnout.
Attacks on INEC facilities and security agencies
The memories of past violence against electoral and security institutions remain sharp. In recent years, several INEC offices and police stations across Anambra have been attacked or burnt by gunmen.
Even though the security climate has improved since 2021, these scars run deep. Many residents still doubt the ability of law enforcement to protect them or ensure a peaceful process.
The spectre of ballot snatching, intimidation, and attacks on collation centres continues to feed voter apathy, especially in rural and riverine communities where state presence is weak.
Cult-related and local political violence
Beyond separatist tensions, Anambra’s politics carries its own internal dangers. Cult-related violence and politically motivated killings are long-standing features of the state’s power struggle.
In flashpoints such as Nnewi, Ihiala, and parts of Onitsha, rival groups have historically been sponsored by politicians to assert dominance or disrupt opponents.
In the previous poll, gunmen attacked electoral officials, torched police stations, and razed INEC offices in Ihiala, Nnewi South, and parts of Orumba North. Entire communities lived under the dread of “unknown gunmen,” whose campaign of violence blurred the line between political criminality and separatist activism.
Such violence, often targeted and sporadic, can effectively cage communities. On election day, a rumour of confrontation or a brief clash can empty an entire polling unit. This form of micro-level insecurity may not make national headlines, but it often leaves visible dents on voter turnout.
This simply implies that, beyond separatist influence, localised political violence continues to haunt Anambra’s democratic process. The state’s history of rough-and-tumble politics, marked by godfather rivalries, cult gang recruitment, and targeted assassinations, has not entirely faded.
Security agency overreach and militarisation
In an effort to secure past elections, security agencies deployed large numbers of soldiers, police, and SSS operatives across the South-east. a
While these measures aim to deter violence, they sometimes achieve the opposite, creating tension and fear.
Young voters, already sceptical of state institutions, may interpret a heavy security presence as intimidation rather than protection. Yet, in some communities, especially those recovering from violence, the same show of force could inspire confidence. The duality of this perception – reassurance in one place, suppression in another- makes security a double-edged sword in the Anambra election.
Kidnapping and banditry threat
Kidnappings and highway ambushes remain a lingering fear, particularly along Anambra’s border corridors with Imo and Enugu. For many residents, even the journey to polling units can feel perilous. Those who must travel long distances, or traders returning from market towns, may choose safety over civic duty.
Weak patrols or poor coordination among security formations could further shrink participation, especially in rural or riverine areas where early morning movement is risky.
Today, while the frequency of such attacks has declined, their psychological residue endures. The outlawed IPOB, though officially disowned by its own leadership, continues to cast a shadow through the culture of enforced sit-at-home orders.
Mondays, once a routine start to the workweek, now symbolise paralysis and fear. Even in major towns like Awka and Onitsha, commercial life slows dramatically on such days.
Residents have become accustomed to self-censorship, avoiding unnecessary travel, staying off highways, and limiting night activities. As one trader in Nnewi told PREMIUM TIMES, “You don’t know which day they will say we should not move. Everyone is just careful.”
That caution now extends to the coming election. Voters, already distrustful of government assurances, fear that polling day could attract the kind of violence that sit-at-home enforcers or criminal gangs often exploit for notoriety.
Although precise figures for election-day casualties remain unclear, findings by Amnesty International indicate that between January 2021 and June 2023, at least 1,844 people were killed across the South-east region.
The 2021 abducted candidate
The Labour Party (LP) governorship candidate, Obiora Agbasimalo, was kidnapped on 18 September 2021 while on a campaign tour in Ihiala LGA.
Mr Agbasimalo, a former bank official, was abducted alongside a police officer in his convoy at Lilu, a community in the Ihiala Local Government Area of Anambra State.
The incident occurred less than a month before the governorship election in the state, which was held on 6 November 2021.
As of 2023, his case was the subject of ongoing court proceedings and investigations. PREMIUM TIMES ran follow-ups showing the case remained unresolved.
The SSS and police later said they arrested suspects linked to the abduction; court records and testimony (2025) show prosecution activity and arrests of alleged kidnappers, but the candidate’s full fate remains a point of reporting and litigation amidst rumours that his abductors had killed him.
Other abduction cases
This is not the first time Anambra has witnessed abductions linked to political seasons. Like other states in the South-east, the state has in recent years become a target of gunmen’s attacks.
In 2024, a member of the Anambra House of Assembly, Justice Azuka, was abducted along Ugwunapampa Road in Onitsha North Local Government Area.
The state Commissioner of Police, Nnaghe Obono, later confirmed the arrest of nine suspects in connection with Mr Azuka’s killing.
Earlier on 21 May 2022, gunmen abducted and beheaded Okechukwu Okoye, the lawmaker representing Aguata 2 Constituency, alongside his aide, Cyril Chiegboka, just six days after their abduction on Aguluzigbo Road in Anaocha LGA.
Around the same period, Uzozie Chukwujekwu, a special adviser to a former Nnewi South Council chairperson, was kidnapped and his only son shot, barely hours after Mr Okoye’s death became public.
Two other former state legislators were also abducted and killed in separate attacks that year.
The wave of insecurity extended beyond politicians to government officials, security operatives, and clerics.
In December 2024, retired Archbishop of the Anglican Diocese of Nnewi, Godwin Okpala, and his driver were declared missing in the state.
However, barely one month after they were declared missing, the cleric and his driver resurfaced.
While the federal government continues to blame IPOB for such attacks, the separatist group has consistently denied involvement.
This pattern of targeted killings and abductions deepens voter anxiety ahead of the November election. With prominent figures and everyday citizens alike falling victim to violence, many residents may choose personal safety over participation, threatening to further reduce voter turnout in a state already struggling with electoral apathy.
The terror of the Anambra state security outfit
In January, the Anambra State Government established a state security agency under the 2025 Homeland Security Law. The security outfit is often referred to as the Agunechemba/Anambra Vigilante Group. It was launched to complement federal agencies, focus on intelligence, community policing, and rapid reaction.
At the inauguration of the security outfit, Governor Charles Soludo described the special intervention force as an “emergency measure” designed to complement conventional policing through enhanced intelligence gathering, whistleblower incentives, and rapid-response operations aimed at dismantling criminal hideouts across Anambra. The governor emphasised that the outfit’s core mission was to “flush out criminal elements from any camp in the state and restore lasting peace.”
In its early months, the outfit made visible strides, raiding hideouts, arresting suspects, and reclaiming communities previously under the control of armed gangs. Several localities reportedly regained normalcy, while some traditional spiritualists accused of shielding or aiding criminal groups fled the state to evade arrest.
However, barely six months later, the outfit’s credibility has come under intense scrutiny following allegations of human rights violations, corruption, and operational excesses. Reports of indiscriminate arrests, harassment of civilians, and brutal enforcement tactics have sparked public outrage and calls for accountability.
One particularly disturbing case that drew national attention involved the assault of a serving member of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) in Oba, Idemili South LGA.
A viral video showed armed operatives of the outfit flogging and stripping the female corps member naked before dragging her away. Witnesses alleged that about eight officers stormed the “Corpers’ Lodge” and attacked her and some of her colleagues under the false accusation that they were Internet fraudsters.
The incident, widely condemned across social and mainstream media, has cast a dark shadow over the outfit’s legitimacy and raised urgent questions about oversight, professionalism, and the use of force in Anambra’s security operations.
A historical decline and voting patterns
Despite the symbolic importance of Anambra’s governorship elections, voter turnout has remained consistently low since 1999.
A Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID) analysis reveals that of the 2.2 million registered voters in 1999, only 1.02 million (46.4 per cent) cast their votes. In 2003, participation stood at 47.2 per cent. The 2010 election saw a sharp decline, with only 302,000 of 1.84 million voters (16 per cent) casting ballots. By 2013, turnout was 25 per cent, and by 2017, it had dropped to 21 per cent.
The 2021 election marked an all-time low, with 10 per cent participation, as only 253,388 out of 2,466,638 registered voters participated. Overall, voter turnout in Anambra has averaged just 25 per cent across six election cycles, one of the lowest in Nigeria.
For the 2025 election, INEC has recorded 2,802,790 registered voters, representing 55.13 per cent of the state’s population. Of this, about 143,000 (5.1 per cent) are newly registered voters. How many of them will turn up on 8 November remains uncertain.
A CJID pre-election survey involving 820 respondents found that 71.1 per cent were returning voters, while 28.9 per cent were first-time voters. Yet, 45.7 per cent of respondents admitted they did not vote in 2021, citing reasons such as fear of violence and insecurity (74 respondents), distrust in the process (92), low voter education (37), logistical challenges (66), and the belief that their votes wouldn’t make a difference (81).
Also, the 2025 Chatham House survey revealed that nearly 46 per cent of Nigerians “greatly distrust” security agencies, a sentiment particularly strong in the South-east.
This distrust can be traced to the region’s historic trauma, including the Nigerian Civil War (1967–1970), in which over three million people were killed.
More recent experiences, such as the brutality of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) in Awkuzu, Anambra, have reinforced public scepticism. The SARS unit was linked to disappearances, torture, and extrajudicial killings, sparking nationwide protests in 2020 that led to its disbandment.
Even now, reports of military excesses and human rights violations in the name of combating insecurity continue to erode confidence.
According to CJID’s findings, 67.4 per cent of respondents said the presence of security agents improved their confidence to vote, while 24.6 per cent said it did not. However, 58.3 per cent believed the sit-at-home order could still discourage them from voting.
When asked to assess the capacity of security agencies to ensure peaceful elections, 39.5 per cent of respondents rated them “fair,” 28.6 per cent “good,” 17.6 per cent “poor,” and only 7.4 per cent gave “excellent” ratings.
Furthermore, 30.8 per cent said insecurity and violence could prevent them from voting this November. Nearly 50 per cent said they witnessed or experienced some form of violence in the 2021 election, including intimidation, destruction of materials, or attacks by armed groups.
These numbers highlight a crisis of confidence that could shape the 2025 outcome before a single ballot is cast.
Other findings
According to a recent report by the CLEEN Foundation, five Local Government Areas, Ihiala, Ogbaru, Nnewi South, Orumba North, and Onitsha North, are considered high-risk zones for violence or disruption during the poll.
The report revealed that between 2022 and 2024 alone, these LGAs collectively witnessed more than 120 deaths linked to violent incidents. Ihiala recorded the highest toll, with at least 46 fatalities, followed by Nnewi South (22), Orumba North (13), Ogbaru (11), and Onitsha North (13).
The Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) reached similar conclusions in its Election Security Risk Assessment, identifying Ihiala and Aguata as the two most volatile LGAs, with Awka South, Onitsha North, Ogbaru, and Idemili North also flagged.
The study, supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, found that while separatist attacks had declined compared to 2021, non-electoral violence, cult clashes, land disputes, and politically motivated killings had surged.
These findings reveal a worrying trend: the security challenge has evolved rather than disappeared. The threat is now fragmented and unpredictable, making it harder for security agencies to manage.
Reassurance and intimidation?
The Nigerian state’s typical response to insecurity around elections is a massive deployment. Anambra will be no exception. The Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Kayode Egbetokun, announced in October that 45,000 police personnel would be deployed across Anambra State for this Saturday’s off-cycle election.
Speaking during a meeting of the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Abuja, Mr Egbetokun reaffirmed the commitment of the Force to ensuring adequate security for all electoral processes nationwide, particularly the forthcoming Anambra poll.
He clarified that only security agencies officially represented in the ICCES, namely, the Police, State Security Service (SSS), Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), and the military, will participate in election operations.
According to the IGP, tactical units will begin pre-election operations on 1 November, focusing on identifying and dismantling potential security threats. He added that the usual restriction of movement would be enforced on election day, with all entry and exit points into Anambra State fully secured to prevent infiltration by criminal elements.
Four days ago, the Commandant-General of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Ahmed Audi, ordered the deployment of 10,250 personnel to Anambra State ahead of the election.
Mr Audi said the deployment was aimed at ensuring a peaceful, credible, and orderly election, warning that anyone found violating electoral laws would face the full weight of the law.
While intended to reassure, such a show of force often triggers the opposite effect. For many young people, particularly those in urban areas who have experienced arbitrary stop-and-search operations, the sight of armed men can signal intimidation rather than safety. The optics of armoured vehicles, military checkpoints, and long convoys of security operatives, though meant to deter violence, sometimes deepen voters’ sense of alienation.
This dynamic creates a paradox: the very measures designed to protect democracy may inadvertently suppress participation. Yet, without such deployment, the risk of violence could rise dramatically, especially in flashpoints like Ihiala, Ogbaru, and Nnewi South.
Residents react
According to Okwuchukwu Okonkwo, the national secretary general of the National Youth Council of Nigeria (NYCN), the current situation in Anambra is markedly different from the dark days.
“Everything has actually dropped drastically over time with the new arm of security outfit which the state government is actually using to curb down insecurity in the state,” Mr Okonkwo told PREMIUM TIMES.
“So, the funny thing and the good thing is that this election coming up on 8 November, it’s not going to be like the other usual elections where there will be lots of tension in the air or who will win or not because even the blind can see that APGA is definitely going to win that election with the way things are going.”
He describes an atmosphere of relative calm, almost unusual for an election period in the state: “Basically, in terms of the security, we don’t have any issues, no casualties or any security reports or any robberies or any kidnappings or any insurgencies lately. So, for now, Anambra is safe, the election is going to go well, unlike before now, the election used to be very, very hot.”
For the first time, he noted, there has been no gubernatorial debate, an unprecedented sign, perhaps, of low political tension.
“No one is panicking. The red zone we have in Anambra City, the Ihiala area we had down earlier last month, and this month, people have returned to Ihiala. In those places where they had serious incidents, people have come back to their villages. People have started going to churches. Schools have actually resumed in these locations, so everyone is at peace. So, I think nobody is panicking,” Mr Okonkwo stated.
The sit-at-home culture in retreat
Interestingly, recent accounts suggest that the sit-at-home phenomenon may be losing its grip. Mr Okonkwo points out that life has gradually returned to normal, even on Mondays.
He said, “The funny thing is that all this activity has actually subsided. I’m going to speak from the point of view of Awka. In Awka, movements are always there. People go to their various workplaces. Then there are locations where there are also movements. But the thing is that people have actually used their Mondays basically as their rest days. So, nothing is happening. People can drive all the way from Awka to Enugu on Mondays, like I do.”
This quiet normalcy, he argues, could translate into a higher turnout on election day if maintained.
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Chioma Precious, another resident, shared a similar observation but struck a more sceptical tone about the election.
“We still observe sit-at-home in Anambra, but it’s peaceful,” she said. “People can move around, but shops, schools, and markets don’t open. There’s freedom of movement, and the government’s security team will ensure there’s no disturbance on election day.”
However, she said she would not be voting.
“We already know the current governor will still win. Everybody knows that. Only Goodluck Jonathan didn’t go for a second term. Votes don’t count; we’re in Nigeria. It has never counted.”