Inside Tinubu’s military reshuffle and challenges ahead

…New Service Chiefs must halt terrorism spread – Experts

Amid growing concern over the rapid spread of banditry and terrorism into states once considered peaceful, President Bola Tinubu on Friday announced sweeping changes in the hierarchy of Nigeria’s armed forces — a move analysts say signals a decisive attempt to overhaul the country’s faltering security architecture.

Over the past two years, Nigeria’s security situation has deteriorated sharply, marked by unrelenting violence, mass kidnappings, and persistent acts of terrorism and banditry. The worsening trend, which has severely tested the Tinubu administration’s security strategy, is believed to have triggered the shake-up at the top of the military command.

In a statement on Friday, Sunday Dare, special adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication, announced the appointments of General Olufemi Oluyede as the new Chief of Defence Staff, replacing General Christopher Musa.

Read also: Tinubu sacks service chiefs, replaces Musa with Oluyede

The President also appointed Major General W. Shaibu as Chief of Army Staff, Air Vice Marshal S.K. Aneke as Chief of Air Staff, and Rear Admiral I. Abbas as Chief of Naval Staff.

E.A.P. Undiendeye retains his position as Chief of Defence Intelligence.

President Tinubu, while expressing “profound appreciation” to the outgoing Chief of Defence Staff and other service chiefs for their patriotic service and leadership, charged the new appointees to justify the confidence reposed in them. He urged them to “enhance the professionalism, vigilance, and comradeship that define the Armed Forces of Nigeria.”

The statement added that “all appointments take immediate effect.”

A top military officer who spoke to BusinessDay on condition of anonymity said the removal of the service chiefs should be viewed as part of a regular military exercise.

“Every December, the Nigerian military undergoes a round of promotions and retirements to refresh its command structure and create room for younger officers to advance,” the source explained. “Once a new set of chiefs are appointed, their predecessors must retire to pave the way for career progression within the ranks.”

He added that the reshuffle was “necessary” because “the outgoing chiefs had each spent about 35 years in service, the statutory limit for officers of their ranks, by military tradition.”

Lawrence Alobi, a retired Deputy Inspector General of Police (DIG), however, described President Tinubu’s decision as “timely.”
“The outgoing Service Chiefs did their best, and the President knew there was a need to inject fresh ideas into the battle to deal with growing insecurity,” Alobi said.

Read also: Meet newly appointed service chiefs

Alobi, who also served as Commissioner of Police in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), urged the new military leadership to act swiftly.
“They must quickly recover communities under the control of bandits,” he said. “They must flush them out of those places and also stop them from spreading to other areas.”

The appointments, coming against the backdrop of escalating insecurity despite repeated assurances from defence authorities, underscore the urgency of revitalising Nigeria’s security structure.

Worsening insecurity and shifting epicentres of violence

From Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) insurgencies in the Northeast to the rise of new armed groups such as Lukarawas and Wulowulo in the Northwest — alongside the growth of kidnapping-for-ransom networks in the central belt — the state’s monopoly of force is being challenged on multiple fronts. Just last Thursday, BusinessDay reported that ISWAP fighters launched coordinated and simultaneous attacks on three local government areas of the Borno state within 24 hours.

The terrorists, BusinessDay gathered attacked four communities, including Mafa, Dikwa, Marte, and Ajiri. According to local sources, the terrorists first arrived late Wednesday in Mafa riding on more than 100 motorcycles and four gun trucks, heavily armed with weapons of mass destruction.

Experts say the spread of terrorism to areas previously considered safe likely reinforced the President’s decision to inject new ideas into the military command.
Recent reports of an alleged coup attempt — swiftly denied by the Defence Headquarters — have deepened public unease, reflecting how insecurity and political uncertainty are fuelling anxiety nationwide.

Read also: Boko Haram uses drone to attack troops, Zulum tells FG

A 2023 report by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) found that non-state actors were responsible for 3,841 killings and 4,243 abductions nationwide, with the North-Central zone overtaking the long-troubled Northeast as Nigeria’s new epicentre of violence.

Similarly, data from Nextier Intelligence covering January 2023 to March 2024 documented 5,319 casualties, 3,110 kidnappings, and more than 1,500 violent incidents across the country — a clear sign of violence diffusing into previously stable regions.

The crisis worsened in 2024–2025. Amnesty International reported that over 10,200 people were killed in attacks by armed groups during the first two years of the Tinubu administration. Between July 2023 and June 2024, at least 7,568 people were abducted, with ransom demands exceeding ₦10.9 billion, though only a fraction was paid.

In the following year, another 4,722 abductions were recorded, with ransom payments totalling ₦2.57 billion.
Nowhere is the crisis more visible than in the North-West and North-Central regions, where heavily armed bandit networks raid villages, abduct commuters, and burn farmlands almost with impunity. Zamfara State alone recorded 854 kidnap victims in 2023, the highest nationwide.

Analysts describe kidnapping as both a “lucrative funding mechanism for armed groups” and a “tool of mass terror” enabled by weak policing and the proliferation of small arms.

In the Northeast, Boko Haram and the ISWAP remain active despite intensified military offensives. The June 2024 multiple suicide bombings in Gwoza, Borno State — which killed dozens during a wedding and funeral — underscored the insurgency’s persistence.

While the Defence Headquarters claims to have neutralised over 1,900 terrorists in a single quarter, security analysts argue that the insurgency endures due to deep-seated structural problems, including porous borders, mass displacement, and limited state presence in remote areas.

The Middle Belt continues to suffer from deadly herder–farmer clashes, especially in Plateau and Benue states. In May 2023, over 100 people were reportedly killed in Mangu Local Government Area, Plateau State, while renewed violence in Benue in early 2025 claimed at least 42 lives.

Experts say competition over land and water — worsened by climate change and population growth — has turned these disputes into recurring humanitarian crises. The ethno-religious dimension, often pitting predominantly Muslim herders against largely Christian farming communities, further complicates resolution.

The digital space has also emerged as a new frontier of insecurity. As Nigeria’s economy becomes increasingly digital, cybercrime, fintech fraud, and illicit financial flows have surged. Financial institutions reportedly lost ₦52.26 billion to fraud-related activities in 2024 alone.

In the oil-rich Niger Delta, oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and illegal refining continue to drain national revenue, eventhough recent months have brought some reprieve.

Despite the deployment of surveillance drones and new monitoring technologies, oil theft remains a multi-billion-naira criminal enterprise sustained by local grievances, corruption, and weak governance.

An overstretched security system and the road ahead

Nigeria’s security forces are operating under immense strain. Analysts blame the crisis on inadequate funding, corruption, and poor coordination among security agencies. The federal police, in particular, have been criticised as bloated and overly centralised — lacking the flexibility to respond swiftly to local crises.

This has fuelled growing calls for state police, with proponents arguing that localised law enforcement would be more responsive to regional realities and better equipped to address crime prevention.
Against this backdrop, the resurgence of coup rumours in 2024 and 2025 points to deeper institutional fragility.

Read also: Again, troops neutralise nine terrorists in separate attacks, recover over N5m

In February 2024, media reports claimed the Guards Brigade had been placed on high alert following “unusual movements” — allegations swiftly dismissed by the Defence Headquarters as “malicious and unfounded.”

A similar episode occurred in October 2025, when social media buzzed with rumours of a foiled coup linked to the cancellation of Nigeria’s 65th Independence Day parade and the detention of 16 senior officers.
Once again, the military branded the claims “entirely false and intended to cause unnecessary tension.”

Experts, however, say the rumours reflect a broader national mood of uncertainty.
“They mirror the anxiety of a populace confronting insecurity and economic hardship while losing confidence in the state’s ability to protect them,” one security analyst told BusinessDay.

For many observers, the cumulative picture explains why President Tinubu opted for a decisive overhaul of the military hierarchy.

The reshuffle, they argue, is both a political and operational necessity — a signal that the administration recognises the urgent need for fresh energy, new ideas, and restored public confidence in the armed forces.

Whether the new service chiefs can meet that challenge will depend on how quickly they move to stem the tide of insecurity sweeping across the country — from rural communities under siege to urban centres gripped by fear.
And as Alobi warned, “They must flush them out of those places and also stop them from spreading to other areas.”