Nigeria at 65: The promise of improved national security
On October 01, 2025, Nigeria marked its 65th year of independence. The echoes of this year’s celebration, like those of previous years in this fourth republic, are tempered by a sobering reality: security remains the linchpin of Nigeria’s national stability and economic ambition. From the bustling markets of Lagos to the resilient farmlands of the North, the shadows of insurgency, gang violence, cultism, banditry, and communal strife continue to test the federation’s resolve. Yet, in his Independence Day address, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu struck an unapologetically optimistic chord, declaring that “the worst is over” and crediting Nigeria’s security forces with tangible victories against these threats. We are optimistic that the President’s message will not be empty rhetoric but a benchmark for what lies ahead—a nation poised to translate hard-won gains into enduring peace.
Tinubu’s broadcast was a masterclass in measured hope, weaving personal anecdotes of his own encounters with insecurity into a broader narrative of progress. He lauded the armed forces and agencies for their “blood and sweat” in stamping out Boko Haram (Jama’atu Ahlis-Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad and the Islamic State of West Africa Province) in the North-East, the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and Eastern Security Network (ESN) threats in the South-East, and the scourge of banditry and kidnapping across the land. “They are winning the war against terrorism, banditry and other violent crimes,” he affirmed, pointing to hundreds of liberated communities where peace has tentatively returned, allowing thousands to reclaim their homes. This is no small feat in a country where headlines continuously scream of debilitating security occurrences. The President’s words point towards a shift: from reactive firefighting to strategic dominance, bolstered by enhanced intelligence, security forces operations and community partnerships.
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But optimism must be stress-tested against the ground truth. The Fragile States Index, by the Fund for Peace, has Nigeria at 15th position out of 179 countries, a reflection of the fact that at 65, Nigeria’s National Security Enterprise remains in desperate need of enhanced security sector governance and security sector reform as it grapples with multifaceted challenges that transcend borders and ideologies. According to Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited (BSIL), a company I founded and run, a total of 6,874 abductions have been documented from January 01 to September 30, 2025, and 8,886 fatalities within the same period. This places Nigeria among the top five countries that are worst affected by insecurity globally. More remarkable is the progressive improvement in security metrics since May 2025, where BSIL’s database has shown reductions in security-associated fatalities and abductions on a monthly basis starting from May 2025, from over 1200 in May 2025 to about 500 plus in September 2025.
Yet, despite these month-to-month improvements, the impact of insecurity on Nigerians and foreigners residing in Nigeria is huge. In the North-West, herder-farmer clashes and resource-driven banditry disrupt agricultural supply chains, inflating food prices and exacerbating inflation, which, while down to 20.12% in August 2025, remains a household burden. Construction companies and factories generally have seen security overhead increase to nearly 20% of their operating cost. The Niger Delta simmers with oil theft and environmental sabotage, syphoning billions from federal coffers and deterring foreign direct investment. Cyber threats, too, loom larger in our digital economy, with ransomware attacks on banks and infrastructure testing the resilience of our nascent fintech boom. These are not isolated incidents but symptoms of deeper fissures: youth unemployment hovering at 40 percent, porous borders exploited by transnational criminals, and a climate crisis amplifying resource scarcity.
“The President’s words point towards a shift: from reactive firefighting to strategic dominance, bolstered by enhanced intelligence, security forces operations and community partnerships.”
What makes Tinubu’s speech particularly resonant for business leaders is its explicit linkage between security and economic renewal. He highlighted how subsidy removals and exchange rate unification have freed up resources for “education, healthcare, security, and infrastructure”, fuelling a 4.23 percent GDP rebound in Q2 2025 and five straight quarters of trade surplus. Secure environments are the oxygen of enterprise; without them, no amount of fiscal wizardry can sustain growth. The President’s call to sub-national governments, “I urge the sub-national entities to join us in nation-building. Let us be a nation of producers, not just consumers”, is a clarion for collaborative federalism. States like Borno and Kaduna, which have piloted community policing models, offer blueprints: integrating local vigilantes with federal security forces and tech, such as drone surveillance and AI-driven predictive analytics, to preempt threats.
Looking forward, the focus should be on enhanced security sector governance and security sector reform to achieve accountability, sustainability and resilience. Mr President, Sir, we urge you to evolve a system to hold the security sector accountable, both financially and operationally, using monitoring and evaluation as well as effective audit measures. The National Assembly must step up its legislative duties in support of this and to achieve an effective National Security Enterprise that is consistent with our national aspirations. Then we must jointly, as part of collaborative federalism, in a whole-of-government and a whole-of-society manner, stem the violence, reduce conflict, rebuild community trust and promote economic resilience.
The Presidency and the National Economic Council should work with the newly created regional commissions and the Nigeria Governors Forum to strengthen regional development plans and have them serve as frameworks for public-private partnerships for addressing the developmental challenges peculiar to the regions. Accordingly, Nigeria’s security renaissance demands high-stakes innovation. First, invest in human capital: channel the enhanced revenue generation into vocational programmes that turn idle youth into skilled labour and cybersecurity sentinels as well as agro-entrepreneurs, directly undercutting recruitment pipelines for insurgents and other non-state armed groups. Second, regional diplomacy: deepen ECOWAS ties to seal Sahel borders, where jihadist spillovers thrive. Third, private-sector synergy: incentivise conglomerates to fund “secure zones” around industrial parks, blending corporate social responsibility with national defence. These steps align with President Tinubu’s vision of a “new foundation cast in concrete, not on quicksand”, transforming security from a cost centre to a growth engine.
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At 65, Nigeria stands at an inflection point, not as a fragile giant, but as a phoenix mid-rise. President Tinubu’s assurance that “yesterday’s pains are giving way to relief” invites us all to co-author the next chapter. For businesses, this means betting on stability: expanding operations in reclaimed territories, forging public-private pacts, and viewing security as the ultimate competitive edge. The dawn he heralds is not inevitable; it is ours to seize. In the words of our forebears, from this moment onwards, the future is pregnant, let us deliver it secure, prosperous, and unequivocally Nigerian.
Kabir Adamu is the Managing Director of Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited.
