Nigeria risks starvation amid fertiliser boom – Report
Nigeria may face widespread food shortages despite the ongoing surge in fertiliser production and distribution, the Business and Climate Intelligence Think Initiative (BACITI) has warned.
In its latest Economic Insight report, the policy research group cautioned that the country’s agricultural output could plunge if structural challenges, such as high input costs, climate shocks, and poor smallholder access to fertiliser, are not urgently addressed.
BACITI noted that the apparent “fertiliser boom” masks deeper inefficiencies in Nigeria’s food production chain, raising fears that the nation could be heading toward a paradox of plenty, where industrial growth fails to translate into improved yields or food security.
According to the September 2025 edition of the report, published by the Bashir Adeniyi Centre for International Trade and Investment (BACITI), Nigeria has rapidly emerged as a major fertiliser producer, joining global players like Indorama, Notore, and Dangote Group in driving fertiliser exports across Africa and other continents.
Dangote’s recent $2.5 billion investment in a new three-million-ton-per-year fertiliser plant in Ethiopia was cited as a major milestone that positions Nigeria as a global hub in fertiliser production.
However, beneath this industrial success lies what BACITI calls a “fertiliser-food paradox.” Despite abundant fertiliser capacity, Nigeria continues to grapple with chronic food shortages and rising prices.
The report highlights that while Nigerian fertiliser is being shipped to the United States, Brazil, and India, domestic consumption remains extremely low due to high costs, weak distribution systems, and limited access to credit for smallholder farmers.
BACITI’s analysis shows that Nigeria produced about 3.46 million metric tonnes of urea fertiliser in 2022, up 28 percent from the previous year, but only 1.6 million tonnes were consumed locally, representing just 20 percent of total production.
In contrast, countries like Brazil and India record fertiliser use several times higher per hectare, leading to significantly better crop yields.
The think tank linked this underutilisation to Nigeria’s worsening food inflation and trade deficit.
By December 2024, headline inflation had climbed to 34 percent, with food inflation peaking at 39.84 percent, the highest in nearly three decades.
Prices of staples such as rice, maize, yams, and bread rose sharply, driven by fuel subsidy removal, currency devaluation, and supply bottlenecks. Despite vast arable land and a favourable climate,
Nigeria spent an estimated $10 billion on food imports in 2023 alone, including $3 billion on grains.
Data in the report show that agricultural imports were valued at $6.6 billion in 2023, compared with just $2.3 billion in exports.
This imbalance, BACITI noted, undermines food security and exerts severe pressure on the country’s foreign reserves.
By comparison, Brazil recorded an agricultural trade surplus more than ten times Nigeria’s, while Egypt narrowed its food trade deficit through policy reforms and export diversification.
Ghana, once a net exporter, fell into deficit in 2023 following a decline in exports.
Placing Nigeria’s challenges in a global context, BACITI observed that feeding an estimated nine to ten billion people by 2050 will require a 60–70 percent increase in food production, much of which must come from developing countries.
Yet Sub-Saharan Africa remains hampered by low productivity, with average cereal and maize yields just half those of India and one-fifth of the United States.
Nigeria typifies this constraint, as low fertiliser use, weak irrigation systems, poor mechanization, and limited adoption of improved seeds continue to suppress yields.
Rather than improving productivity, Nigeria’s agricultural expansion has relied heavily on land clearing, often at the expense of forests and savannahs, without achieving food self-sufficiency. BACITI warns that this approach is unsustainable and could deepen food insecurity despite the country’s abundant natural resources.
To reverse the trend, the report draws lessons from two agricultural success stories, Brazil and India.
Brazil’s transformation, it notes, is rooted in decades of investment in research, mechanisation, and logistics, yielding $164.4 billion in agricultural exports in 2024.
India, on the other hand, achieved food self-sufficiency through the Green Revolution of the 1960s, combining irrigation, high-yield seed varieties, and fertiliser adoption to become one of the world’s largest producers of rice and wheat.
BACITI recommends that Nigeria adopt a hybrid model, leveraging Brazil’s industrial efficiency and India’s focus on smallholder productivity to build a sustainable agricultural system that ensures both self-sufficiency and global competitiveness.
The report further calls for critical reforms across the agricultural value chain, including improved fertiliser distribution, expanded mechanisation and irrigation, and investment in post-harvest infrastructure such as storage and transport.
It advocates the creation of Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones to boost value addition and reduce waste, alongside strengthened research and extension services.
Read also: DNA-based blood test spots 50 cancer types before symptoms appear
Other key enablers identified include harmonised trade policies, secure land tenure, and access to affordable finance. The think tank also highlights investment opportunities in fertiliser blending, farm equipment manufacturing, solar-powered irrigation, agri-tech platforms, cold-chain logistics, and food processing ventures.
Targeted credit and insurance products for smallholder farmers and cooperatives, it added, could drive inclusive growth and accelerate Nigeria’s agricultural transformation.
BACITI stated that Nigeria must begin to treat food as “the new crude.” Just as the country leveraged oil to industrialise, it must now harness agriculture to ensure food security, diversify exports, and position itself as a global food supplier.
“The future of Nigeria’s economy, depends not only on what it extracts from the ground but on what it grows from its soil”, the report asserts.
