Nigerian assets tumble after Trump’s invasion threat

…Stocks shed N247bn as investors reprice naira assets

…Nigeria’s Eurobond market sees huge selloffs

…Naira loses N14.61 against dollar

Nigeria’s assets fell sharply on Monday after United States President Donald Trump threatened to invade the country to root out terrorists alleged to be killing Christians.

The nation’s stocks fell by 0.25 percent, losing N247 billion at the close of trading, as market digested the implications of Trump’s recent threat on Nigeria.

Ahead of trading this week, there had been fears that Trump’s threat to launch a military invasion of Nigeria could raise the risk premium on Nigerian assets while threatening to erode recent gains achieved by the nation’s reforms.

The NGX All-Share Index and market capitalisation depreciated from Friday’s highs of 154,126.46 points and N97.829 trillion respectively to 153,739.11 points and N97.582 trillion yesterday.

The record dip in Nigeria’s stock market in the first trading day in November impacted its returns year-to-date (YtD), which stood lower at +49.37 percent.

Read also: Naira, Eurobonds down after Trump’s threat to Nigeria

Trump had, on Friday, designated Nigeria as a ‘Country of Particular Concern,’ following it up on Saturday with a threat to cut off US aid to the nation and invade it to “wipe out Islamic terrorists” allegedly committing a genocide against Christians.

The threat, issued through the President Trump’s official X handle, came as he ordered the Pentagon to “prepare for a possible action” as a lethal response to the alleged killings.

Following Friday’s positive close, Futureview research analysts had expected a positive rebound in equities this week, saying their optimism was “fuelled by renewed interest in undervalued stocks, upbeat expectations for Q3 earnings, and improving market liquidity.”

Also, the stock market of Africa’s most populous nation on Monday defied the positive sentiment by Coronation Research analysts before Trump’s threat.

Coronation Research analysts had said: “Looking ahead, we expect a mild bullish tone driven by bargain hunting given the uptick recorded at the last trading session of last week and investors continue to absorb nine-month earnings reports.”

CardinalStone Research analysts had said in their Model Equity Portfolio (MEP) on November 3, “We will continue to monitor post-earnings market reactions and reassess our positioning accordingly, ensuring that the portfolio remains strategically aligned for optimal returns.”

Eurobond market sell-off

Similarly, Nigeria’s Eurobond market saw huge selloffs, witnessed across all the 12 dollar bonds.

The FGN Eurobond 2047 suffered the biggest blow, which saw its price drop by up to 0.6 cents on the dollar, hitting a low of 88.26 cents.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Nigerian dollar bonds comprised all 10 of the worst performers in emerging markets worldwide as of 10:45 a.m. in Lagos.

This is an undoing of the gains seen last week, where the average FGN Eurobond yield decreased by 14 basis points week-on-week to 7.49 percent, from 7.63 percent the previous week.

Naira loses against dollar

Also, the naira depreciated by one percent against the dollar in the official foreign exchange (FX) market following the negative sentiment fuelled by Trump’s threat.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the naira lost N14.61 as the dollar closed at N1,436.34 at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), compared to N1,421.73 per dollar quoted on Friday.

However, at the parallel market, popularly called the black market, the naira appreciated by 1.04 percent to close at N1,440 per dollar, gaining N15 from N1,455 recorded on Friday.

External reserves rose to $43.19 billion as of the last update on October 31, 2025, according to data from the CBN.

Read also: Stocks shed over N240bn as investors reprice naira assets on Trump’s threat

Foreign exchange inflows through the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) slowed to $1.04 billion, from $1.37 billion, according to a report by Coronation Merchant Bank. The report shows that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) accounted for 62.3 percent (US$645.40 million) of total inflows, followed by contributions from exporters at 15.0 percent, non-bank corporates at 11.6 percent, foreign direct investments (FDIs) at 1.9 percent, and other sources at 9.2 percent.

Ayokunle Olubunmi, head of Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto & Co., attributed the naira’s 1.0 percent loss against the dollar to the recent threat by former U.S. President Donald Trump against Nigeria.

He said the reaction in the currency and bond markets was not unexpected, noting that both had shown signs of pressure following Trump’s comments. “I think it’s not far-fetched because even in the bond market, we also saw a drop. So, yes, I agree that it is largely because of this Trump pronouncement,” he stated.

Olubunmi, however, expressed optimism that the market would stabilise soon, describing Trump’s comments as part of his usual political style. “The market will settle because this is Trump’s style — he often makes strong statements, causes some initial disruption, and then things strengthen at the end of the day, sometimes without any real action,” he said.

He added that, based on past patterns, the impact might be temporary. “This is not the first time he’s doing it. Over the next couple of days, the market should stabilise,” Olubunmi noted.

Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said that even the mere threat of military action by a global superpower has inflicted significant reputational damage on Nigeria’s image as a safe and viable investment destination. He noted that such rhetoric can trigger declines in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, capital flight from portfolio and equity investors, a fall in venture capital and startup funding, as well as heightened country risk ratings and investor anxiety.

He explained that financial market volatility would likely intensify as investors reassess Nigeria’s risk profile, with likely consequences including falling stock market valuations, rising country risk premiums and insurance costs, higher sovereign bond yields, and further depreciation of the naira due to capital outflows and portfolio reversals.

According to him, an escalation in perceived geopolitical risk could tighten financial conditions and distort macroeconomic indicators. This could result in rising interest rates, a weakened currency with higher inflationary pressures, reduced foreign reserves and lower external buffers, as well as pressure on fiscal balances due to increased defense spending and reduced investment inflows.

“Uncertainty and fear would lead investors to adopt a wait-and-see posture, delaying

or cancelling major projects. Private equity and venture funds may diversify away from Nigeria toward peer economies in Africa or Asia with lower perceived political risk,” he noted.

A Bloomberg report stated that Nigeria’s currency also recorded an intraday drop of 1.2 percent to N1,442.80 per dollar, its biggest one-day loss since June, making it the weakest among emerging-market currencies on Monday.

Ayodeji Ebo, managing director/CBO at Optimus by Afrinvest,, said the recent movement appears to be a mild correction following last week’s panic-driven dollar sell-off which led to a significant appreciation of the naira. The market seems to be stabilising, although the renewed political risks linked to Trump’s statements may have contributed to the temporary pressure on the naira on Monday. “Overall, we expect the currency to continue trading within a relatively tight band around current levels,” he said.