Over 34 million Nigerians to face acute food insecurity by mid-2026 – FAO report
...as Nigeria marks 10 years of Cadre Harmonisé
An estimated 34.7 million Nigerians, including over 650,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) across Borno, Sokoto, and Zamfara States, are projected to face Crisis (CH Phase 3) or worse levels of food insecurity between June and August 2026, according to the latest national food and nutrition security analysis.
The report, titled “Cadre Harmonisé Fiche: Acute Food and Nutrition Insecurity Analysis,” was prepared by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in partnership with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (FMAFS). It provides an updated assessment for October–December 2025 and projections for June–August 2026, covering 27 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Presented during a National Consolidation and Validation Workshop in Abuja on Friday, the report reveals that while some households have maintained “acceptable” food consumption, over 55% are doing so by reducing meal quality and quantity, borrowing money, or skipping meals altogether.
A breakdown of the findings shows that 27.2 million people, including IDPs, are already in food crisis across 27 states, a situation expected to worsen during the upcoming lean season.
In Adamawa State alone, about 1.4 million people could face crisis or emergency levels by mid-2026.
Although a recent dip in inflation and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly stabilised staple food prices, the cost of essential complementary foods — such as vegetable oils, dairy products, meat, and condiments — remains over 35% higher than average. Rising transport costs and a volatile naira-dollar exchange rate have further inflated food haulage and reduced household access to nutritious diets.
The report warns that these socioeconomic pressures are likely to persist during the lean months, driving further deterioration in food consumption outcomes and weakening already fragile livelihoods.
It highlights a sharp decline in livelihood opportunities, particularly in conflict-affected and agriculturally dependent regions, where insecurity, high input costs, and poor market access have restricted farmers’ income and access to land.
While government food imports have helped ease consumer prices, the report cautions that such measures undermine local agricultural livelihoods, leaving many smallholder farmers indebted after the 2025 cropping season. Compounding the problem, the cost of fertilizers and agrochemicals has risen by 56%, discouraging participation in the forthcoming dry-season farming campaign.
The nutrition situation ranges from Alert (Phase 2) to Serious (Phase 3) and Critical (Phase 4) across the Northwest, Northeast, and parts of North Central Nigeria, with limited stability recorded in southern parts of Katsina, Jigawa, and Benue States.
Borno and Yobe States reported the highest levels of acute malnutrition (Phase 4), particularly in Maiduguri, Jere, Mobbar, and central Borno, while Katsina’s Jibia and Mashi LGAs have crossed into critical thresholds.
In contrast, assessments of IDP camps in Benue State—including the Makurdi International Market Camp and Dauda 2 Camp in Guma LGA—revealed Acceptable (Phase 1) and Alert (Phase 2) nutrition levels, respectively.
Most parts of the Northeast and Northwest recorded low to moderate mortality (Phases 1–2), but areas such as Central, Northern, and Southern Borno; Southern Adamawa; Central and Northern Yobe; Eastern Sokoto; Northern Katsina; Western Zamfara; and parts of Kebbi and Jigawa are already facing Crisis-level mortality (Phase 3). Emergency-level mortality (Phase 4) was reported in Eastern Borno and Northern Adamawa, underscoring worsening humanitarian conditions.
The analysis attributes the projected crisis to multiple interlinked drivers, including insecurity, climate shocks, displacement, and policy-related disruptions such as government food imports that depress local production.
Humanitarian partners warn that unless urgent action is taken to scale up livelihood support, nutrition interventions, and conflict mitigation efforts, millions more Nigerians could slip into emergency food insecurity by mid 2026.
Nigeria Marks a Decade of Cadre Harmonisé Implementation
In his remarks, Hussein Gadain, country representative, FAO said Nigeria has now marked 10 years of implementing the Cadre Harmonisé (CH) — a critical early warning tool guiding humanitarian and development response planning.
He noted that Ekiti State joined the CH process for the first time, bringing the number of participating states to 27, while nine others remain outside the framework.
“We encourage more states to join this analysis. Ekiti’s independent participation and data collection is a powerful example of what commitment can achieve,” Gadain said, urging the remaining states to join before the March 2026 cycle to achieve nationwide coverage.
Gadain highlighted the multiple shocks undermining livelihoods, including armed conflict, organised crime, economic pressures, and climate extremes, and called for policy reviews to better support farmers.
“Conflict and insecurity are displacing farmers and disrupting agricultural activities. Inflation, though easing, continues to strain purchasing power. While food prices have slightly declined, the high cost of fertilisers, seeds, and energy threatens future production,” he said.
Read also: Nigeria’s hunger crisis deepen, ranked 115th in Global Hunger Index
He added that floods, pests, and crop diseases have further compounded challenges faced by farming communities, stressing the need for stronger resilience strategies and improved agricultural planning.
Commending the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security for hosting the workshop, Gadain acknowledged the contributions of UN agencies, state governments, national NGOs, and regional partners such as CILSS.
He also thanked FAO technical teams for providing critical data from inaccessible areas — including Zamfara, Katsina, and Sokoto — which he said was vital for ensuring the accuracy of this year’s assessment.
Gadain concluded by urging partners in the Food Security and Nutrition sectors to intensify data collection in inaccessible regions such as Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe, warning that,
“Without reliable data, our ability to plan and respond effectively is compromised.”
