Swimming with the sharks, By Adamu Rabiu
Nigeria’s democracy can be rescued, but not by those who feed off its chaos. Reform requires courage, cooperation, and vision beyond party lines. It demands that IPAC and other political leaders look beyond self-interest to see the larger picture: a nation in dire need of political renewal.
In the murky depths of the treacherous and predatory Nigerian political waters, where the currents of power swirl like a predator’s fin cutting through the ocean waves, survival often depends less on vision or service, and more on how well one can swim among the Sharks. Aspiring leaders do not just dip a toe; they dive headlong into a frenzy of jaws and thrashing tails.
Picture this: you are a young idealist, armed with a manifesto sharper than a harpoon, convinced that one bold shove can pierce the hide of corruption and inequality. But as you plunge in, the water turns red. The Sharks, the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and recently The Ghost Shark, African Democratic Congress (ADC), composed of once-terrifying predators, now a pale shadow of themselves gliding through the depths, too proud to beg, too weak to hunt, swimming lazily waiting for crumbs or death, now circling the abyss until the ocean claims them. As these colossal beasts of the APC, PDP and ADC glide with lazy delusions, their eyes gleaming with greed and vengeance, and ulterior-motivated that the ocean is theirs, are nothing, dem be blubber shark. The minnows, the so-called Inconsequential parties, dart about in futile zigzags, nibbling at crumbs, while the giants feast on the banquet.
This is no idle metaphor; it is the brutal reality of Nigeria’s political terrain in 2025. As we edge closer to the 2027 general elections, the arena feels less like a democracy and more like a gladiatorial pit, where the rules are already rigged, the referees appointed, and the naïve crowd cheers for the bloodiest spectacle. The APC holds sway over the Federal Government and a majority of states, its tentacles wrapping around institutions like a kraken claiming the sea floor. The PDP, once the unchallenged leviathan, clings to pockets of resistance in states like Rivers and Bauchi, but even there, it is a shadow of its former self. The rest? Labour Party’s brief 2023 spark has dimmed to embers, while the SDP, NNPP, and others flit like fireflies in a storm, visible perhaps and clinging to ideals that the current political tide keeps pushing back to the shore, but is easily snuffed out.
The Illusion of Multiparty Democracy
Nigeria prides itself on being a multi-party democracy. On paper, over 18 political parties exist. In reality, power is monopolised by the APC and PDP, which have mastered the art of entrenchment, rigging, looting, exclusion, the control of electoral processes, capture of institutions, and weaponisation of incumbency. Their illicit hegemony over Nigeria’s political ocean is not strength, it is a stolen throne propped up by rigged currents and blood money, in which they have reduced democracy to a ritual. It’s like “dem don turn democracy to godfatherism, one cabal dey chop the national cake, the rest dey lick plate.”
The Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) are buoys that Sink Ships. IPAC, the forum for collective reform and cooperation, where parties are supposed to hash out electoral grievances, the lighthouse guiding Nigeria to safer shores, which was formed under INEC’s watchful eye, and billed as a collaborative council for “inter-party advisory” on everything from voter education to dispute resolution. In theory, brilliant. In 2025? A farce. It has become, regrettably, a stage for posturing, self-preservation and anchors, dragging progress to the depths with their non-cooperative intransigence, where parties bicker over leadership rather than purpose, and critical proposals meant to strengthen democracy are drowned in ego, suspicion, sabotage and I-Too-Know.
And the SDP, once a whisper of progressive promise, mirrors this myopia, turning a blind eye to the very ideas that could inoculate the system against its own poisons.
The Tragedy of Short-Sighted Politics
Step into any Nigerian polling unit before or on election day, and you will see it – the APC’s war chest, bloated with federal largesse, drowning out challengers in a tidal wave of billboards, branded rice bags, t-shirts, face caps and whispered threats. PDP heartlands offer a flicker of counterbalance, but even they echo the same old chants of patronage over policy. Minor parties? Well, they are the plankton, the nutrition for the ecosystem in theory, but are devoured wholesale in practice. According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s 2023 post-mortem reports, over 80 per cent of registered political parties failed to secure even a single federal seat, their campaigns evaporating like mist under the midday sun.
Benefits? Cross-carpeting loses its allure when seats are party-bound, not personal fiefdoms. Rigging incentives plummet as losers still get a slice, fostering buy-in over sabotage. And for the average Nigerian? Policies forged in diverse debate, not echo chambers, universal healthcare with tribal tweaks, or renewable energy grids that do not leave some part of the country in the dark.
This is not happenstance, it is hydrology. The system is skewed as it funnels resources upstream to the big fish. Campaign finance laws exist on paper, but enforcement is as porous as a sieve. A 2024 Yiaga Africa report laid it bare: APC candidates outspent rivals by a factor of five in key states, leveraging state coffers for “development projects” that double as vote-buying sprees. Meanwhile, independents and small-party hopefuls burn through personal savings, ₦50 million here, a family farm sold there, only to watch their tallies vanish into the ether of “technical glitches” and ballot-snatching mobs. It is a frustration that festers like an open wound. And I ask, why pour your life’s blood into a race in which the finish line is a mirage?
Enter cross-carpeting, the political equivalent of a shark shedding its skin mid-hunt. Section 68(1)(g) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), is the shark repellant, meant to keep defectors from feasting on stolen mandates. But with courts redefining ‘division’ as ‘any disagreement,’ it has become a toothless relic, floating uselessly in the bloodied waters of Nigerian politics. It is a noble clause meant to punish disloyalty. In reality? It is a joke with a punchline written in loopholes. Since 2019, over 100 federal lawmakers have jumped ship without a backward glance, their seats intact like barnacles on a hull. The most infamous? The 2024 to 2025 mass defection wave from PDP to APC in the Senate and House of Representatives, in which more than 20 members flipped en masse, citing “better platforms,” while pocketing the perks of their original mandates. And Nigerians, we just watched in impotent rage.
The Innovative Lifeline
Yet, amid this aquatic apocalypse, glimmers of hope bob to the surface. Proposals for reform have been lobbed into the fray, amongst which are:
- Proposal for the Adoption and Integration of a Web and Mobile-Based Election Monitoring Coordinating Application, in Line with the IPAC Strategic Plan 2024 – 2028;
- A Youth-Led Roadmap to Stop Nigeria’s Bleeding Democracy – 2025 National Youth Conference Planning Committee;
- A Post Mortem of the 2023 General Election and Next Steps;
- The Tide of Justice Accord (TJA). The mother of all proposals, it does not just patch the boat but rebuilds the entire ocean. This has not been made public yet!
These audacious proposals are rippling and will ripple through think-tanks and town halls, poised to upend the 2027 calculus. Imagine this, not a zero-sum scrum where one party devours all, but a “Grand Inclusion Accord.” Post-election, the winning alliance would mandate cabinet slots, committee chairs, and board seats for runners-up from all registered parties, prorated by vote share. No more winner-takes-all, instead a mosaic government in which firebrands co-pilot infrastructure with elder statesmen, and eco-warriors green-light policies alongside pragmatists.
It is not a pie-in-the-sky. But as a model turbocharged for Nigeria’s federal, state and local government area frenzy, this accord would be enshrined via a pre-2027 IPAC-brokered pact. Thresholds? A modest 1 per cent vote to qualify; enough to reward the minnows without bloating the bureaucracy at whatever level of governance.
Benefits? Cross-carpeting loses its allure when seats are party-bound, not personal fiefdoms. Rigging incentives plummet as losers still get a slice, fostering buy-in over sabotage. And for the average Nigerian? Policies forged in diverse debate, not echo chambers, universal healthcare with tribal tweaks, or renewable energy grids that do not leave some part of the country in the dark.
Yet, critics will howl: “It will paralyse decision-making.”
But go check history. It is the Shock Therapy that Nigeria’s democracy craves for!
Swimming with the sharks is exhausting, yes. One must understand them, their hunger, their instincts, their greed, their fears and their weaknesses. These blubbering Sharks are bloated and flabby, not just because of their size, but because others refuse to cooperate and innovate. As 2027 looms, it is time for IPAC to shed its scales of myopia, for SDP and kins to link fins rather than flail alone.
A Call to Dive Deeper
In Nigeria, we say ‘even crickets dey fear to chirp when power don pass mark.’ IPAC was handed a proposal, a blueprint to save democracy from the Sharks. Its response? Crickets or worse, dismissals laced with the arrogance of incumbents who believe their strategies are “foolproof.”
The SDP, with its social democratic pretensions, fares no better, the party has flirted with reform rhetoric but balked at alliance-building, preferring solo swims that will end in exhaustion. A stark reminder that isolation in shark-infested waters is suicide.
Nigeria’s democracy can be rescued, but not by those who feed off its chaos. Reform requires courage, cooperation, and vision beyond party lines. It demands that IPAC and other political leaders look beyond self-interest to see the larger picture: a nation in dire need of political renewal.
Swimming with the sharks is exhausting, yes. One must understand them, their hunger, their instincts, their greed, their fears and their weaknesses. These blubbering Sharks are bloated and flabby, not just because of their size, but because others refuse to cooperate and innovate. As 2027 looms, it is time for IPAC to shed its scales of myopia, for SDP and kins to link fins rather than flail alone.
The ocean is vast, the sharks formidable, but remember: Even predators fear the storm. Let’s brew one with our collective roar, and watch the waters part. Nigeria’s democracy is not drowning; it is just waiting for us to learn how to swim as one. Or we will be left with a political ocean where the brave drowns, the corrupt floats, and the sharks continue to feed!
Last Line
Giving the sabre rattling of Mr Trump, we wonder what the reaction of the Sharks will be?
Adamu Rabiu is a Monitoring and Evaluation specialist on policy, finance, risk, politics, good governance and an advocate of sustainable development. He writes from Kaduna.