Trade reset: How Nigeria can win after AGOA
As the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired on September 30, 2025, and has not been renewed, the question confronting Nigeria is not whether the programme should be renewed or not, but why the country barely used it in the first place. Enacted in 2000, AGOA opened duty-free access to the vast U.S. market for over 6,500 products from eligible African countries.
It was meant to be a springboard for industrialisation, a ladder into global value chains, and a chance for Africa’s giants to trade their way into prosperity. Instead, Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, exported mostly crude oil and missed the broader opportunity.
Two decades later, the numbers tell a sobering story. Under AGOA, African exports to the United States peaked at about $82 billion in 2008, driven mainly by petroleum. By 2023, that figure had fallen below $40 billion, with Nigeria’s non-oil exports to the U.S. contributing less than $150 million, a fraction of what smaller economies like Kenya, Lesotho, and Madagascar achieved through textiles and apparel. In contrast, Vietnam, not even part of AGOA, exported over $96 billion worth of goods to the U.S. that same year.
Why did Nigeria underperform? The reasons are structural, not sentimental.
First of all, the programme rewarded production, not extraction. Nigeria remained trapped in oil dependency. With refineries idle and manufacturing capacity below 10 percent of GDP, the economy simply did not produce the kind of goods AGOA was designed to favour: finished, traceable, high-value exports. The absence of stable power, modern ports, and efficient logistics kept Nigerian products uncompetitive.
Second, there was limited institutional coordination. While countries like Kenya established dedicated AGOA strategy units, export promotion agencies, and industrial parks tailored to meet U.S. compliance standards, Nigeria treated AGOA as a passing policy incentive, not a national export strategy. Few Nigerian exporters understood the documentation, labelling, or certification processes needed to access the U.S. market. Many had no idea which products even qualified.
Third, finance and trade infrastructure lagged. Most Nigerian small and medium exporters could not secure pre-shipment credit, export guarantees, or insurance. Without access to capital, they couldn’t meet large U.S. orders or maintain consistent quality. The African Trade Insurance Agency and NEXIM Bank offered tools, but awareness was minimal. AGOA opened the door, but Nigerian businesses never walked through.
And yet, the post-AGOA moment offers a reset, an opportunity for Nigeria to turn lost chances into lasting advantage.
To begin, Nigeria must treat trade as a national strategy, not a by-product of oil policy. The United States remains a $30 trillion economy, with consumer spending exceeding $17 trillion a year. Capturing even one-tenth of one per cent of that market, roughly $17 billion, would exceed Nigeria’s current total non-oil export earnings. The U.S. market is vast, diverse, and increasingly receptive to African goods: organic foods, apparel, beauty products, digital services, and cultural exports. Nigeria has all these in abundance. What’s missing is organisation.
A new generation of Nigerian entrepreneurs is already showing what’s possible. In Georgia, Texas, and Maryland, Nigerian-American distributors are importing hibiscus, sesame, cassava flour, and shea butter – products once confined to local markets – and placing them on the shelves of Walmart, Whole Foods, and Amazon. Nollywood films now reach millions of U.S. viewers via Netflix and Amazon Prime, while Nigerian designers are carving out niches in America’s $500 billion fashion market. These are not isolated successes. They are blueprints for what a coordinated national export strategy could achieve.
To win after AGOA, Nigeria must start with five practical shifts.
First, build industrial capacity for value addition. Exporting raw materials is a 20th-century model. Processing sesame into oil, cashew into snacks, and cocoa into finished chocolate could multiply export earnings by five. Agro-processing parks, linked to ports and powered by reliable energy, would anchor these industries. The federal and state governments should co-invest with the private sector and the diaspora to create such clusters. Second, institutionalise export intelligence.
The Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC) must evolve into a true trade-intelligence hub. Exporters should have access to real-time data on U.S. demand, pricing, and regulatory updates. A centralised export advisory portal could guide labelling, logistics, FDA certification, and customs procedures. Success in the U.S. market requires information as much as production.
Third, finance trade at scale. Nigeria must strengthen the pipeline between NEXIM Bank, the Bank of Industry, and commercial lenders to provide export credit guarantees, pre-shipment finance, and trade insurance. Exporting to the U.S. should not require collateral in Abuja; it should require a business plan and a purchase order. Diaspora investors could also be mobilised through a Nigeria-U.S. Export Fund that pools capital for export-oriented SMEs.
Fourth, leverage digital trade. American consumers now buy more online than in physical stores. Nigeria’s artisans, designers, and agro-producers can sell directly through e-commerce platforms like Amazon, Shopify, and Etsy. But this requires digital literacy, logistics networks, and payment integration. The fintech revolution that made Nigeria Africa’s digital banking leader must now extend into cross-border trade.
Titus Olowokere is the Executive Director / CEO of the U.S.-Nigeria Business Council, Atlanta, GA. He can be reached at [email protected] (+14049394030)
