2027: PIG predicts close presidential race, says Tinubu leads narrowly
By Kazeem Ugbodaga
The 2027 presidential election is shaping up to be a closely contested race among the All Progressives Congress (APC), African Democratic Congress (ADC) and New Democratic Congress (NDC), with no clear gap separating the leading political contenders, according to the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng.
PIG projects APC presidential candidate Bola Tinubu to win by a slim margin, edging Peter Obi of the NDC and Atiku Abubakar of the ADC, provided the 2027 election is free and fair.
The group’s Convener, Lai Omotola, said this on Thursday at a news conference in Maryland, Lagos, while presenting its November electoral map and assessment of the political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Omotola said the group’s projections indicated a tight contest among the three parties, with the presidential race expected to be decided by narrow margins.
“As it stands today, we project a slim margin of victory among the three leading contestants, with close margins separating them,” he said.
He said the political landscape had changed considerably, warning that politicians who failed to recognise shifting voter preferences could face serious challenges at the polls.
“Any politician that enters the field with the mentality of business as usual will face imminent defeat,” he said.
According to Omotola, the growing number of young voters could significantly influence the outcome of the elections, with about 68 million new voters expected to participate for the first time in 2027.
He said voters between the ages of 18 and 49 would dominate the elections, making their participation a major factor in the contest.
The group also projected a 40 per cent voter turnout, which Omotola said would represent the highest participation in Nigeria’s electoral history, compared with 29 per cent recorded in the last general election.
He identified the commencement of campaigns by the APC, ADC and NDC in October as a sign of growing political activity ahead of the polls.
Omotola cited the APC’s inaugural campaign rally in Kaduna, led by President Bola Tinubu, as well as the debate over fuel subsidy following former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar’s proposal for its restoration.
He also raised concerns over the preliminary voters’ register released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), alleged to contain AI-generated names, a development he said had generated controversy.
On the electoral map, PIG projected that the APC would win 13 states, the NDC 13 states and the ADC 11 states.
The group said its projections were subject to the conduct of a free and fair election.
Omotola also raised concerns about the campaign environment, alleging that opposition parties were encountering stiff resistance, while internal disagreements within the APC could affect the political calculations of the parties.
“Opposition parties are encountering stiff resistance to campaign. APC is witnessing internal bickerings. These may affect all the three parties in their own way,” he said.
He urged political parties, INEC and other stakeholders to ensure peaceful, free and fair elections, describing the 2027 polls as a defining moment for Nigeria’s democracy.
He said the electoral map exercise would continue with further assessments in November and December.